Where will Arsenal finish this season?

Mikel Arteta

Where will Arsenal finish this season?

By Alec McQuarrie

Arsenal have made steady improvement over the last few seasons under Mikel Arteta.

After finishing 8th in his debut season, the Spaniard oversaw a five-point improvement in his first full campaign. 

And last year an eight-point leap followed, which was unfortunately not enough to pip Tottenham to fourth place. 

Cruelly, the 69 points accumulated would have been enough to seal Champions League qualification in the previous two seasons. 

Looking at the trajectory over the Arteta era, it would be fair to assume a continued improvement this coming season. 

After all, with five signings already secured this summer and Alexandre Lacazette the sole first-team player to depart, surely fourth place should be a bare minimum expectation. 

Oleksandr Zinchenko offers much-needed cover at left-back and competition for central midfield. 

Gabriel Jesus is a proven goalscorer and brings a tireless work-ethic to fulfil Arteta’s pressing philosophy. 

And Fabio Vieira is one of Europe’s brightest prospects, evidenced by the player of the tournament award he picked up at the under-21 European Championships last year. 

With more signings a real possibility for the Gunners before the transfer window slams shut, what’s stopping Arsenal challenging even higher this year? 

According to FiveThirtyEight’s predictions supercomputer, Arsenal will finish fifth behind Tottenham, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. 

Interestingly the statistical model forecasts an 11% chance for the Gunners to remain just outside the Champions League qualification places, but also an 11% chance to finish fourth. 

Tottenham’s chances for grabbing fourth are calculated to be 13% and this rises to 14% for third place. 

Luckily for Arsenal fans, according to FiveThirtyEight Manchester United’s chances of finishing ahead of Arteta’s men are significantly reduced, despite the arrival of Erik ten Hag. 

United have been mercifully sluggish in the transfer market in which they should have been prioritising a hard-working central midfielder. 

Instead, an unproven left-back, a centre-half and yet another attacking midfielder have arrived at Old Trafford. 

The saga of Cristiano Ronaldo has surely been more trouble than it's worth too, and points to an incoherent strategy that should see another disappointing season for the Red Devils.
 
Tottenham, on the other hand, pose a rather different prospect, especially considering the marked improvement towards the back end of last campaign. 

Dejan Kulusevski, Heung-min Son and Harry Kane have been joined by Richarlison to bolster their attacking options and Yves Bissouma is the sort of ball-winning midfielder United and Arsenal have been crying out for. 

That’s without mentioning former Forest right-back Djed Spence and Croatian international Ivan Perisic. 

Thankfully, Tottenham will always remain Tottenham – perennially capable of collapses of epic proportions. 

Chelsea too showed some vulnerability in 2022, meekly falling away from a title chase that never seemed convincing. 

And it remains to be seen how the Blues will cope without Danny Drinkwater. 

In all seriousness, Arteta now has the tools at his disposal to battle both London sides for the top four positions. 

A title challenge may be out of reach, with both Manchester City and Liverpool showing no signs of relinquishing their indomitable form. 

But realistically it would shock no one if Champions League football returned to the Emirates in 2023.

Photo Credit: Getty Images

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